From CommsDay of 21 May 2026
In yesterday’s CommsDay there were three articles that related to the on-going controversy about the pricing of spectrum for the purposes of the expiring spectrum licences and also the timing of the invariably substantial amounts involved – we re-print the first of them as our CommsDay story for this week. The article covers the advice to ACMA from Ian Martin Advisory (IMA) about the ability of the mobile operators to afford the price levels proposed by ACMA. Would they have to cut costs as a result, or increase prices? Spoiler: IMA thinks they can handle it. The article includes a comment from the Australian Telecommunications Alliance about the impact on investment by the industry.
Ian Martin Advisory: MNOs can absorb $7.32bn spectrum bill
An Australian Communications and Media Authority-commissioned analysis has found Telstra, Optus, TPG Telecom and NBN Co should be able to fund the $7.32bn expiring spectrum licence renewals without materially increasing debt, cutting business-as-usual capex or raising prices.
The Ian Martin Advisory report, prepared for ACMA as part of its expiring spectrum licence pricing process, directly addressed one of the central arguments from the mobile network operators: that higher renewal prices would flow through to consumers and crowd out investment.
IMA rejected that argument, saying the three-year operating outlook for the three MNOs and NBN Co remained good, even though
revenue growth had moderated compared with the previous three years. It said mobile service revenue was close to its previous forecasts, with growth shifting away from postpaid and more towards prepaid and wholesale categories. It attributed that in part to
stronger MVNO competition and early competition effects from the Optus-TPG regional Multi-Operator Core Network agreement.
The report said cash earnings remained strong, citing recent EBITDA growth of 4.6% for Telstra, 5.7% for Optus, 2.0% for TPG Telecom on a pro forma basis and 7.7% for NBN Co. “The good cash earnings outlook would support both ongoing business-as-usual capex as well as renewal of spectrum licences,” it said.
IMA estimated Telstra’s ESL renewal amount at $2.9bn, Optus at $1.9bn, TPG at $2.1bn and NBN Co at $500m. It forecast cumulative EBITDA to FY33 of $77bn for Telstra, $21bn for Optus, $14bn to $16bn for TPG and $41bn for NBN Co. On that basis, ESL renewal would represent 3.7% of Telstra’s cumulative EBITDA, 8.8% for Optus, 13% to 15% for TPG and 1.2% for NBN Co.
The report found the peak ESL payment period would increase Optus’s invested capital by 5.7% and TPG’s by 7.8%, with no likely impact on Telstra or NBN Co net debt. It said TPG was “tighter than the other two MNOs” but still had scope to manage cashflow.
IMA was also explicit that renewal prices were unlikely to force mobile price rises.
It said spectrum costs under ACMA’s updated preliminary prices were lower in aggregate than the costs borne by MNOs for the current licences on a like-for-like basis. It estimated those ESL costs would fall from 3.7% of mobile service revenue to 2.6%, as customer growth, pricing and ARPU strategies and new services lifted nominal revenue over time.
The report also rejected the argument that every extra dollar spent on spectrum meant a dollar less spent on network investment. It said MNO capital investment was driven by return outlook, which it assessed as positive for all three operators, and was already largely set through corporate plans and network agreements.
IMA said there was no case for adjusting spectrum prices to reflect asymmetric operating scale or to support direct-to-device satellite services and potential Universal Outdoor Mobile Obligation requirements. It said those issues would be better addressed through direct subsidy or contract rather than lowering ESL prices.
ATA TAKES OPPOSING LINE: However the Australian Telecommunications Alliance took an opposing tack to Martin, with CEO Luke Coleman stating ““When telcos are forced to overpay for spectrum, it means they have less money to invest in mobile services. Every dollar spent on spectrum is a dollar that can’t be spent on better coverage, faster speeds, and more resilient networks – it’s that simple.”
“Australians benefit from a competitive mobile market. Telecoms is the one and only sector in the Australian economy where the Consumer Price Index has gone down compared to ten years ago – by 23%,” he said. “At a time when Australians are facing significant cost-of-living pressures, telcos have consistently provided more bang-for-your-buck from your mobile service – but high spectrum taxes put all of this at risk. Australia has three national mobile networks competing to deliver the greatest coverage, the fastest speeds, and the best customer service. This is great for consumers – Australia currently ranks 11th in the world for network excellence, according to OpenSignal. If Australia wants to telcos to keep investing in these networks, then telcos need spectrum at a price that doesn’t impact investment.”
Grahame Lynch
IN TODAY’S COMMSDAY (Friday 22 May 2026)
Optus has revealed a strong set of full year results, with EBITDA up 6% and across the board revenue growth. While mobile remained the key driver, the telco registered ARPU and revenue growth in home broadband despite customer losses and for its wholesale, enterprise and business fixed arm on the back of its MOCN arrangement with TPG Telecom.
Singtel’s willingness to bring an Australian minority partner into Optus could attract interest from superannuation funds and specialist infrastructure investors, given the scale of Optus’s telecommunications infrastructure.
Singtel Group has flagged an intention to invest S$1.2 billion (A$1.32bn) above its core capex in data centres, equipment and fit-outs for GPU-as-a-service facilities and AI.
SES is recasting its satellite strategy around medium earth orbit, sovereign network capability and narrowband direct-to-device connectivity after completing its merger with Intelsat, according to SES vice president APAC Terry Bleakley.
The NSW Telco Authority is delivering a new device bank program in partnership with IT social enterprise WorkVentures as part of the implementation of the state’s Digital Inclusion Strategy.
SpaceX has used its prospectus to pitch itself as an artificial intelligence, space and connectivity company, claiming a US$28.5 trillion total addressable market across the three sectors.
X Corp has been ordered to pay a $650,000 penalty after being found by the Federal Court to have failed to fully comply with an eSafety transparency notice seeking information about the steps it has taken to combat child sexual abuse material.
Plus more
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